Could Black Friday Spark a Rally?

Black Friday sales may be the harbinger of a significant surge in consumer confidence that could fuel our economic recovery. According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), Black Friday retail sales were up 16% over last year. The NRF notes that 226 million shoppers hit the stores and online sales over Thanksgiving weekend and spent $52.4 billion.

In more good news, an NRF pre-holiday poll found that shoppers are more optimistic this year than they were last year. Based on that survey, the NRF forecasted that total holiday sales would be up 2.8% to $465.6 billion. However, the wildly successful Black Friday may result in sales beating that estimate. Interestingly, over the last ten years, we’ve seen a 2.6% annual average increase in holiday spending. However, over the course of the previous decade, the average annual increase was 3.4%.

Retailers have a huge incentive to get you to shop until you drop this season. As the NRF notes, about 20% of their sales occur in the less than 30 days between Black Friday and Christmas. For some retailers, such as jewelers, that percentage could be as high as 40%. To resist the holiday message to spend, spend, spend, think of other economies that stress the merits of saving. Over the past three decades, Germany, France, Austria, Belgium, and Sweden have maintained household saving rates between 10 and 13 percent. Conversely, saving rates in the United States dropped to nearly zero in 2005 before inching up to 5% during the credit crisis of 2008. Most recently, our savings rate has fallen to less than 4%, far less than half of what many Europeans save. Think about that as you head to the mall….

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