Category Archives: Prognostication

Prophets and Profits: Beware Those Cloudy Crystal Balls

A friend of mine tells about a former colleague, a stockbroker, who was famous around the office for his frequent, dire financial predictions. “He successfully predicted five of the last two bear markets,” my friend remarked. On the other side, … Continue Reading

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Perennial Bull Jeremy Siegel Speaks on Stocks

I recently came upon this article where Evan Simonoff reports on Wharton School of Finance Professor Jeremy Siegel’s analysis of equity market valuations. The esteemed professor spoke at the ninth annual Inside ETFs conference and focused on Robert Shiller’s cyclically … Continue Reading

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Doom and Gloom Predictions

In  A Visual History of Market Crash Predictions, Michael Johnston asks that “when wading through the predictions of financial doom and gloom,” that we keep one thing in mind: In a sense everyone is a salesperson. For editors of personal finance … Continue Reading

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Predicting? The Future is Unknowable!

“The key to successful investing is not predicting the future, but looking at the present with clarity.” This observation by Dr. David Kelly, CFA, Chief Global Strategist, J.P. Morgan Funds, offers particular wisdom today. Among other things, investors wonder if … Continue Reading

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Did Your Portfolio Beat the Benchmark?

What’s the goal of investing? Many investors will simply answer, “Returns.” Or, more specifically, “Better returns.” But how do you measure returns? The answer is not as straightforward as you might think. What’s the benchmark? The S&P 500? What if … Continue Reading

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Beware of the Experts’ Market Predictions

’Tis the season for market predictions. Of course, I’d categorize this annual spate of magazine articles under the heading of “fantasy” rather than “finance.” Not unlike weather forecasts, market predictions—even those from reputable sources—are wrong more often than they are … Continue Reading

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